WP2 – Policy Scenarios

Objectives

• Develop a tailored set of variables and key policy themes to be applied in the three different models
• Develop specific Policy Scenarios for each model
• Analyse the effect of uncertainty

Description

Task 2.1: Catalogue of variables and key policy themes (BRUE, M1-M42): Within this task, BRUE, with the support of
all project partners, will compile a list of relevant policy issues and questions (D2.1) – and corresponding official sources
that will be addressed in the different models. This list will be structured along the three “policy pillars” as defined in
section 1.2. This list will allow the project partners, external researchers and modellers to have easy and direct access to
relevant themes, having the possibility to expand the application and/or scope of our models.
Task 2.2: Policy Scenarios (BRUE, M6-M42): In this task, we will develop several policy scenarios by combining
different themes as identified in Task 2.1 as inputs for our three models. The scenarios too will be developed along the
three “Policy Pillars”. We will develop multiple scenarios (at least three for each model, according to the principle of
baseline, lower and upper variant) by combining different variables and multiple rounds of application by changing the
value of the different identified variables.
The development of our scenarios will be guided by the following key questions/issues:
– Demographic background conditions and health policies: How much the Europeans will get older? What kind of disease
will have an impact on demographics (e.g. dementia, cancer, prevalence of cardiovascular disease? How will change
mortality and productivity?
– Labour market conditions and labour market reforms: Labour participation, with a focus on female labour participation;
day care facilities; caregivers and evolution of their profiles; level of education; role of migrants; working week hours
and differences between blue- and white-collar workers; level of minimum wages; retirement age
– Social policies and pension reform: Pension reforms; different LTC insurance systems; role of home equity as a pension
device; income and wealth distribution among households;
The development of these scenarios will also benefit from the Policy Feedback Loop Approach, which will involve
policy makers in the Commission and national government to whom we already have a working relation.
Task 2.3: Effects of uncertainty (BRUE, M12-M45): Building on Task 2.2, this task considers the various impact of
uncertainty in the projection and policy outcomes. We will develop (at least) two case studies. Case study #1 will
investigate the potential for integrating refugees in the EU. For example, recent years have witnessed a substantial lack
of social and healthcare workers in general and within the senior citizen sector in particular. The recent war in Ukraine
and the corresponding flow of refugees coming from this country might significantly impact the supply of healthcare
workers. However, not only is there a high level of uncertainty attached to the number of refugees, but it is also highly
uncertain to what extent retraining programmes can be implemented in order to make refugees part of a distressed senior
sector. Case study #1 analyses how different outcomes impact on the employment, skill structure etc. in the EUs senior
sectors.
Case study #2 will deal with the uncertainty related to projecting the number of very old (aged 85+) in society. Indeed,
if “healthy ageing” prevails, the number of very old citizens in need of care will be smaller compared to a situation of
less healthy ageing. Different scenarios of healthy ageing are likely to have huge implications for the need for healthcare
workers etc. and for the ability to provide adequate healthcare. How to prepare for different outcomes is the principal
subject of this case study.
Role of participants: Bruegel will lead WP2. Ideas for policy scenarios will come from all project participants. Bruegel
will then formulate the precise specification, to be discussed again among all participants. WP leaders of WP3, 5 and 6
will make sure that the policy input correspond to their models.

Deliverables

• D2.1: Theme catalogue
• D2.2: Policy Pillar #1 Scenarios
• D2.3: Policy Pillar #2 Scenarios
• D2.4: Policy Pillar #3 Scenarios
• D2.5: Collection of Case Studies